This shift is mostly attributable to the catastrophic effects on Sudan’s economy of the country’s increasing civil conflict.

The World Bank has lowered its initial 3.4% forecast for economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to 3% for this year. The original estimate was released in April.

This shift is mostly attributable to the catastrophic effects on Sudan’s economy of the country’s increasing civil conflict.

The three biggest economies in the region—Nigeria, South Africa, and Angola—have seen a sharp slowdown in their growth, with average growth of just 1.8% in the previous year.

This decline is concerning, particularly in light of the history of the area. For example, the COVID-19 pandemic caused Sub-Saharan Africa’s production to decline by 2.4% in 2020, which was the region’s first economic downturn in a generation and the worst since the 1960s.

These difficulties are emphasised in the most recent World Bank study, Africa Pulse, which was released on Monday and offers insightful information on the region’s economic future.

Policymakers and other stakeholders must solve these problems if they are to support Sub-Saharan Africa’s sustainable development.

The World Bank said that the downgrading was partially due to the armed conflict’s devastating effects on Sudan’s economy, which included increased forced migration and the destruction of the country’s human and physical capital as well as its capacity to govern.

The analysis projects that Sudan’s GDP would contract by 15.1% in 2024 and then increase by 1.3% the following year. Since April 2023, the nation in northeast Africa has been engulfed in a bloody battle; according to UN estimates, hundreds of people have died. There have been almost 11 million displaced individuals.

The World Bank’s top economist for Africa told reporters on Friday, before of the report’s release, that regional growth in 2024 would have been 3.5% higher and consistent with the initial April projection had the Sudanese crisis not occurred.

Thus, the regional growth rate is being significantly impacted by this, according to Andrew Dabalen, who also noted that “the economy of Sudan has basically completely disappeared.”

Nevertheless, the Washington-based lender anticipates that in 2025 and 2026, the 1.24 billion-person SSA’s economic growth would pick up speed to 4%. Due to decreased loan rates, there will likely be an increase in private spending and investment, which will fuel this as the region’s inflation rate drops to 4.8% this year from 7.1% in 2023.

Concerning the region’s per capita increase, the institution stated that it has not been enough to lessen extreme poverty. According to the report, before the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019, SSA’s real revenue per capital was 2% higher in 2024 than it was in 2019.

It said, “From 448 million in 2022 to 464 million in 2024, the number of poor people increased.”

“Youth demonstrations and tangible discontent in Kenya, Nigeria, and Uganda have been sparked by the high cost of living, corruption, and, more broadly, bad governance – instability that might spread throughout the region,” the World Bank said.