After Israeli Forces Killed Yahya Sinwar, Hamas Is About To Name A New Leader Outside Of Gaza

But analysts predict that the future leader of the group will probably be headquartered outside of Gaza, with Sinwar’s brother, Mohammad Sinwar, slated to play a bigger part in leading the fight against Israel.

After Yahya Sinwar was killed in a confrontation with Israeli soldiers on Wednesday, the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas is expected to announce a new political head from outside of Gaza.

Prior to organising the October 7, 2023, offensive that intensified the existing Gaza War, Sinwar had brought Hamas’s political and military leadership together.

Hamas will be weighing the interests of Qatar, home to several of the leading contenders for the politburo chairman position, against those of Iran, its principal patron.

After the assassination of previous commander Ismail Haniyeh in July, which was also linked to Israeli activities, Sinwar’s death is the second major leadership loss for the organisation in recent months. The task now is to preserve cohesiveness and strategy.

According to Reuters, Hamas’s future is uncertain following more than a year of relentless Israeli military operations that have severely damaged the organisation by removing thousands of its militants and important officials both within and outside of Gaza.

Regarded as a possible successor, Khalil Al-Hayya, the deputy of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, demonstrated defiance on Friday by declaring that Israeli prisoners would not be freed until Israeli soldiers left Gaza and the war ended.

With the Shura Council in charge of choosing a new leader, Hamas has a history of quickly replacing its fallen chief executive.

The new head may participate in ceasefire talks even if they are not physically present in Gaza, where Hamas terrorists still hold many Israeli captives, because the council is made up of delegates from Hamas members in Gaza, the West Bank, Israeli jails, and the Palestinian diaspora.
Analysts and Hamas insiders say that in addition to Hayya, prominent candidates for leadership include former leader Khaled Meshaal and Shura Council chairman Mohammad Darwish. Any decision made by the leadership will have to be shared with other regional capitals and Qatar, which has played a significant role in past ceasefire discussions, even though they were unsuccessful.

Abouelhoul, an expert on Palestinian politics, believes that Sinwar’s duties will be split between two posts, one of which would be responsible for military operations and the other for political matters, such as foreign contacts and policy-making.
He pointed out that choosing Sinwar’s replacement will be heavily influenced by Iran, which is Hamas’s main supporter and a major source of financial and military assistance.
Abouelhoul anticipates that in the impending ceasefire talks, Hamas would stick to its core objectives, which include the evacuation of Israeli soldiers from Gaza and an end to hostilities.

He does think there could be greater wiggle room when it comes to the terms of the Israeli captives being exchanged for Palestinians held by Israel.

Although Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has described Sinwar’s passing as a major turning point in the conflict, he has insisted that fighting would not end until the captives are released.
Hamas is a branch of the Sunni Islamist Muslim Brotherhood that was founded in 1987. Its institutions usually reach consensus when making decisions. Following Sinwar’s passing, Hayya, his deputy and resident in Qatar, has taken up the leadership role in Gaza for the time being.
Experts think that Hayya’s ability to directly connect with ground forces may be limited by continuing fighting and communication difficulties, which might leave the armed wing, the Qassam Brigades, with significant influence.

According to a Hamas insider, Hayya should have no trouble carrying out his role as the “de facto leader of Gaza,” given his strong ties to the military wing and the former leaders, Ismail Haniyeh and Sinwar.

Political analyst Akram Attallah, who is Palestinian, thinks that even if Hayya is in power, the military wing will recognise it. He also thinks that Mohammad Sinwar will become more important inside Hamas as a whole as well as the armed wing. An experienced leader of the Qassam Brigades, Mohammad Sinwar is on Israel’s most-wanted list and has escaped several attempts at his life.

250 people were kidnapped and 1,200 people died as a result of Hamas’s October 7 onslaught, according to Israeli officials.

Israel responded by initiating an attack that, according to Palestinian sources, has destroyed Gaza, killed over 42,000 Palestinians, and uprooted almost all of the region’s inhabitants.