According to experts and other stakeholders, Premium Motor Spirit, or PMS, or petrol, should be less expensive in Nigeria at the current price of $72 per barrel of crude oil.

They said that in September 2024, when crude oil, a significant feedstock, was trading at over $80 per barrel on the international market, the current price of N1, 025 per litre (Lagos) was set.

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They claimed that since then, the price of crude has fluctuated before falling to its current $72 per barrel, with the local price of petrol not reflecting this decline.

The experts told Vanguard in various interviews that deregulation as it is being implemented should allow the market to react to changes in the key raw resource, crude oil, with ease.

Dr. Bala Zakki, an energy analyst based in Port Harcourt, stated: “The price dynamics of petroleum products in Nigeria are irresponsible and are never achievable in any member country of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, and the reason is very simple and straightforward.”

State-owned refineries are operational in OPEC member countries. No responsible government should or would neglect its duties to supply the private sector with goods and services.

“Private sector operators are notoriously exploitative, profit-maximizing, and shylocks on a global scale.”

“The prices that are driven by market forces would slightly fall, though it will be a short term because local sources may fight back,” stated Mr Joseph Ehimen, Chairman of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria, Lagos State chapter, PETROAN.

“If the international prices are lower or continue to drop lower than the local prices, then it is theoretically possible for the domestic market to see a decrease in petrol prices.”

According to Vanguard, the landing cost of gasoline decreased from N945.63/liter in September 2024 to N903 per litre in October 2024, a 4.5% decrease.

In September 2024, the landing cost was N945.63, according to data published by the Major Energies Marketers Association, or MEMAN.

But according to the transactional analysis Vanguard was able to collect yesterday, the landing cost in October 2024 was N903.64 per litre.

The data shows that the total direct cost was N863.06 per litre, which included the cost of the commodity, freight (from Rome to Lagos), port fees, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, the NMDPRA levy, storage costs, marine insurance, and fendering costs.

According to the transactional analysis, which serves as a guide for oil merchants and other stakeholders, the entire cost of financing, including interest (N24.98) and the letter of credit (N15.60), is N40.55 per litre.

Vanguard’s inspections revealed that the comparatively low price of crude oil, which was around $72 per barrel at the time, was the reason for the landing cost decline, while the transactional analysis did not offer any explanations.